ÄÚÈÝ·¢²¼¸üÐÂʱ¼ä : 2026/3/1 23:43:54ÐÇÆÚÒ» ÏÂÃæÊÇÎÄÕµÄÈ«²¿ÄÚÈÝÇëÈÏÕæÔĶÁ¡£
¶àÑù»¯³Ì¶ÈÔö¼Ó¿ÉÒÔ½µµÍ֤ȯ×éºÏµÄ×Ü·çÏÕ¡£Êµ¼ÊÉÏÊǼõÉÙ¶ÀÓзçÏÕ
2?ep¶øÊг¡·çÏÕ
?i2?I2´óÖ²»±ä¡£Êг¡·çÏÕÖеÄ
?p??wi?ii?1nËæ×ŶàÑù»¯³Ì¶ÈµÄÔö¼Ó¼´nÔö´ó£¬È¨ÖØ»á½ÏС£¬µ«?pÊÇ?iµÄ¼ÓȨƽ¾ù£¬³ý·ÇÌØÒâѡȡ½Ï´óµÄ?i£¬Ò»°ãµØ£¬?pûÓиü´óµÄ±ä»¯¡£Òò´ËÊг¡·çÏÕ ÔÚnÔö¼Óʱ´óÖ²»±ä¡£¾ÍÊÇ˵²»¹Ü¶àÑù»¯µÄ³Ì¶È£¬Ö¤È¯×éºÏµÄ»Ø±¨¶¼ÒªÊÜÊг¡·çÏÕµÄÓ°Ïì¡£
2£®ÈçºÎʹÓÃÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲú¸Ä½øÓÐЧ¼¯¡£ÕâʱͶ×ÊÕßÈçºÎѰÕÒ×îÓÅ֤ȯ×éºÏ£¿
´ð£º¢Ù¶ÔÓÚÒ»¸öÀíÐÔµÄͶ×ÊÕß¶øÑÔ£¬Ãæ¶ÔͬÑùµÄ·çÏÕˮƽ£¬ËûÃǽ«»áÑ¡ÔñÄÜÌá×î´óÔ¤ÆÚÊÕÒæÂʵÄ×éºÏ£»Ãæ¶ÔͬÑùµÄÔ¤ÆÚÊÕÒæÂÊ£¬ËûÃǽ«»áÑ¡Ôñ·çÏÕ×îСµÄ×éºÏ¡£ÄÜͬʱÂú×ãÕâÁ½¸öÌõ¼þµÄͶ×Ê×éºÏµÄ¼¯ºÏ¾ÍÊÇÂí¿Ëά´ÄÓÐЧ¼¯¡£¢ÚͶ×ÊÕß¿ÉÒÔ¸ù¾Ý×Ô¼ºµÄÎÞ²îÒìÇúÏßȺѡÔñÄÜʹ×Ô¼ºÍ¶×ÊЧÓÃ×î´ó»¯µÄ×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏ£¬Õâ¸ö×éºÏλÓÚÎÞ²îÒìÇúÏßÓëÓÐЧ¼¯µÄÇеãÉÏ¡£ÓÐЧ¼¯ÉÏ͹µÄÌØÐÔºÍÎÞ²îÒìÇúÏßÏÂ͹µÄÌØÐÔ¾ö¶¨ÁËÓÐЧ¼¯ºÍÎÞ²îÒìÇúÏßµÄÇеãÖ»ÓÐÒ»¸ö£¬Ò²¾ÍÊÇ˵×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏÊÇΨһµÄ¡£¢ÛÒýÈëÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúºó£¬ÓÐЧ¼¯½«·¢ÉúÖØ´ó±ä»¯¡£ÎÞ·çÏÕ´û¿îÏ൱ÓÚͶ×ÊÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲú£¬ÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúÊÇÓÐÈ·¶¨µÄÔ¤ÆÚÊÕÒæÂʺͷ½²îΪÁãµÄ×ʲú¡£Ã¿Ò»¸öʱÆÚµÄÎÞ·çÏÕÀûÂʵÈÓÚËüµÄÔ¤ÆÚÖµ¡£Òò´Ë£¬ÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúºÍÈκηçÏÕ×ʲúµÄз½²îÊÇÁ㣬ËùÒÔÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúÓë·çÏÕ×ʲú²»Ïà¹Ø¡£ÔÚÔÊÐíÎÞ·çÏÕ½è´ûµÄÇé¿öÏ£¬Âí¿ÆÎ¬´ÄÓÐЧ¼¯ÓÉ»¡Ïß±ä³É¹ý×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏµã
µÄÖ±Ïß¡£ÔÚÔÊÐíÎÞ·çÏÕ½è´ûµÄÇé¿öÏ£¬ÓÐЧ¼¯±ä³ÉÒ»ÌõÖ±Ïߣ¬¸ÃÖ±Ïß¾¹ýÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúµã²¢ÓëÂí¿ÆÎ¬´ÄÓÐЧ¼¯ÏàÇС£Èç¹ûÒ»¸öͶ×ÊÕßͶ×ÊÔÚ×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏµã×ó²à£¬ËûµÄ×ʽðͶ×ÊÔÚÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúÉÏ£¬1Ͷ×ÊÔÚ·çÏÕ֤ȯ×éºÏÉÏ£¬Õâ¸öͶ×ÊÕßÒÔÎÞ·çÏÕÀûÂÊ´û³ö£¬È繺Èë¹ú¿âȯ£¬Êµ¼ÊÉÏÊÇ´û¿î¸øÕþ¸®ÊÕÈ¡ÎÞ·çÏÕÀûÏ¢¡£Ô½¿¿½ü·çÏÕԽС¡£µ±1ʱ¼´Í¶×ÊÕß°ÑËùÓÐ×ʽð¶¼Í¶×ÊÔÚÎÞ·çÏÕ×ʲúÉÏ£»Ïà·´µ±0ʱͶ×ÊÕß°ÑËùÓÐ×ʽðͶ×ÊÔÚ·çÏÕ֤ȯ×éºÏÉÏ¡£Èç¹ûÒ»¸öͶ×ÊÕßͶ×ÊÔÚ×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏµãÓҲ࣬ÊǸºÖµ£¬±íʾÓóöÊÛ£¨»ò·¢ÐУ©Ö¤È¯»òÒÔÎÞ·çÏÕÀûÂÊ´ÓÒøÐнè¿î»òÂô¿Õ³ï¼¯×ʽðÓÃÓÚ¹ºÂò·çÏÕ֤ȯ×éºÏ¡£Òò´ËÎÞÀûÂÊ·çÏÕ´û¿îÔÚ×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏµã×ó²à£¬ÎÞ·çÏÕ½è¿îÔÚ×îÓÅͶ×Ê×éºÏµãÓҲࡣ
£¨Î壩¼ÆËãÌâ
1£®Ò»¹ÉƱµÄ»Ø±¨µÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼ÈçÏ£º »Ø
±¨ -10% 0 10% 20% 30%
¸Å
ÂÊ 0.10 0.25 0.40 0.20 0.05
¼ÆËãËûÃǵÄÔ¤ÆÚ»Ø±¨ºÍ±ê×¼²î¡£ ½â£ºÔ¤ÆÚ»Ø±¨rºÍ±ê×¼²î?·Ö±ðΪ£º
r??ripi??10%?0.1?0?0.25?10%?0.4?20%?0.2?30%?0.05?8.5%i?15
???(r?r)ii?152pi?[(?10%?8.5%)2?0.1?(0?8.5%)2?0.25?(10%?8.5%)2?0.4?(20%?8.5%)2?0.2?(30%?8.5%)2?0.05]1/2?10.14%
2£®ÈýÖֹɯ±µÄ»Ø±¨µÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼ÈçÏ£º ¹É
Ʊ
¼×
µÄ
ȯ
±¨ -10% 0 10% 20%
¹É
Ʊ
ÒÒ
µÄ
ȯ
±¨ 20% 10% 5% -10%
¹É
Ʊ
±û
µÄ
ȯ
±¨ 0 10% 15% 5%
¸Å
ÂÊ 0.30 0.20 0.30 0.20
¼Ù¶¨ÕâÈýÖÖ֤ȯµÄÈ¨ÖØ·Ö±ðΪ20%¡¢50£¥ºÍ30£¥£¬²¢ÇÒËüÃÇÊÇÁ½Á½²»Ïà¹ØµÄ¡£
¼ÆËãÓÉÕâÈýÖÖ֤ȯ×é³ÉµÄ֤ȯ×éºÏµÄÔ¤ÆÚ»Ø±¨ºÍ±ê×¼²î¡£ ½â£º¼×¡¢ÒÒ¡¢±ûÈýÖֹɯ±µÄÔ¤ÆÚ»Ø±¨·Ö±ðΪ£º
E(R¼×)??ripi??10%?0.3?0?0.2?10%?0.3?20%?0.2?4%i?144
E(RÒÒ)??ripi?20%?0.3?10%?0.2?5%?0.3-10%?0.2?7.5%i?14E(R±û)??ripi?0?0.3?10%?0.2?15%?0.3?5%?0.2?7.5%i?1
ËùÒÔÓÉÕâÈýÖÖ֤ȯ×é³ÉµÄ֤ȯ×éºÏµÄÔ¤ÆÚ»Ø±¨Îª£º
E(RP)??wiE(Ri)?20%?4%?50%?7.5%?30%?7.5%?6.8%i?13
¶øÈýÖֹɯ±µÄ·½²îΪ£º
2?¼×??(ri?E(R¼×))2pi?(?10%?4%)2?0.3?(0?4%)2?0.2i?14?(10%?4%)2?0.3?(20%?4%)2?0.2?0.01244
2?ÒÒ??(ri?E(RÒÒ))2pi?(20%?7.5%)2?0.3?(10%?7.5%)2?0.2i?1?(5%?7.5%)2?0.3?(-10%?7.5%)2?0.2?0.01112?±û??(ri?E(R±û))2pi?(0?7.5%)2?0.3?(10%?7.5%)2?0.2i?14
?(15%?7.5%)2?0.3?(5%?7.5%)2?0.2?0.0036
µ±ËüÃÇÁ½Á½²»Ïà¹ØÊ±£¬?ij?0£»ËùÒÔ×éºÏµÄ±ê×¼²î
? £½ P3 ??1 i
/ 2 2 ? 20? 6 w 2?% 2 ? 0 . 0124 ? 50 % 2 ? 0 . 0111 ? 30 % 2 ? 0 .0036 1 % i i ??
3£®ÈýÖÖ֤ȯµÄ±ê×¼²îºÍÏà¹ØÏµÊýΪ
֤ȯµÄÏà¹ØÏµÊý ֤ȯ ±ê×¼²î ¼× ÒÒ ±û ¼× 121% l 0.4 0.2 ÒÒ 841£¥ 0.4 1 -1 ±û 289£¥ 0.2 -l 1
¼ÆËã·Ö±ðÒÔÈ¨ÖØ40£¥¡¢20£¥ºÍ40£¥×é³ÉµÄ֤ȯ×éºÏµÄ±ê×¼²î¡£ ½â£ºÓÉÈýÖÖ֤ȯ×é³ÉµÄ֤ȯ×éºÏ
?33???P?????wiwj?ij??i?1j?1?1/222?w12?12?w2?2?w32?32?2w1w2?12?2w1w3?13?2w2w3?23??1/2
¶ø?ij??ij?i?j£¬ËùÒÔ
?12??12?1?2?0.4?1.21?8.41?4.0704
?13??13?1?3?0.2?1.21?2.89?0.6994 ?23??23?2?3??1?8.41?2.89??24.3049
ËùÒÔ
?0.42?1.212?0.22?8.412?0.42?2.892???P????2?0.4?0.2?4.0704?2?0.4?0.4?0.6994?2?0.2?0.4?24.3049???1/2?117.7%
4£®¼ÙÈç֤ȯ×éºÏÓÉÁ½¸ö֤ȯ×é³É£¬ËüÃǵıê×¼²îºÍÈ¨ÖØ·Ö±ðΪ
20£¥¡¢25%ºÍ0.35¡¢0.65¡£ÕâÁ½¸ö֤ȯ¿ÉÄÜÓв»Í¬µÄÏà¹ØÏµÊý¡£Ê²Ã´Çé¿öʹÕâ¸ö֤ȯ×éºÏµÄ±ê×¼²î×î´ó£¿×îС?
½â£ºÓÉÁ½¸ö֤ȯ×é³ÉµÄ֤ȯ×éºÏÆä±ê×¼²îΪ
22?P??w12?12?w2?2?2w1w2?12?1?2?
1/2ÒòΪÏà¹ØÏµÊý?µÄȡֵ·¶Î§½éÓÚ£1Óë+1Ö®¼ä£¬ËùÒÔµ±Á½ÖÖ֤ȯÍêÈ«ÕýÏà¹ØÊ±£¨¼´ ?22?P??w12?12?w2?2?2w1w2?1?2?1/212?1£©£¬¸Ã×éºÏµÄ±ê×¼²î×î´óΪ£º
?w1?1?w2?2?0.35?20%?0.65?25%?23.25%
¶øµ±Á½ÖÖ֤ȯÍêÈ«¸ºÏà¹ØÊ±£¨¼´?22?P??w12?12?w2?2?2w1w2?1?2?1/212??1£© £¬¸Ã×éºÏ±ê×¼²î×îС£º
?w1?1?w2?2?0.35?20%?0.65?25%?9.25%
5£®Ò»¸ö֤ȯ×éºÏÓÉÈýÖÖ֤ȯ¹¹³É£¬ËüÃǵĦÂÖµºÍÈ¨ÖØÈçÏ£º ֤ȯ ¦ÂÖµ È¨ÖØ 1 0.80 0.20
2 1.20 0.30
3 1.04 0.50
ÇóÕâ¸ö֤ȯ×éºÏµÄ¦ÂÖµ¡£